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5 Stages of Grief – Collapsing Hegemony
The 5 Stages of Grief that seems to be setting in with the gradual collapsing hegemony of the west are akin to the famously described 5 stages of grief by the renowned psychologist Elisabeth Kubler Ross in her 1969 book “On Death and Dying”. Of course, the psychological state of mind that she described was in the context of the death of a person or impending death due to a terminal illness. Nevertheless, her postulates appear to be quite applicable to the current ongoing global phenomenon of the gradual death of the unipolar system and collapsing hegemony.

According to Elisabeth Kubler Ross, persistent, traumatic grief can cause us to cycle (sometimes quickly) through the 5 stages of grief: Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, and Acceptance. These stages are a part of our coping mechanism and our attempts to process change and psychologically protect ourselves while we adapt to a new reality.

The 5 stages of grief define the 5 distinctive phases where they start in a Denial mode whereby refusing to acknowledge the hard fact that the demise of the impending demise is an irrefutable and irreversible event. This leads to confused and mindless behavioral responses. They try to dismiss the event as untrue and a bad dream… After the initial denial stage comes Anger where they would begin to get frustrated and angry with everyone else but themselves. They try to find scapegoats and pin the blame on them for the unfolding traumatic event. This is accompanied by cynicism, frustration, rage, and irritability. They refuse to acknowledge their faults that might have led to the situation… After a prolonged period of anger, when reality begins to dawn, comes the Bargaining phase. This is the hopeful phase. It’s like saying after the divorce, “Maybe I can get my wife back”. This phase is not always benign; it can involve a lot of ruthless scheming. This may often lead to fear, anxiety, and a sense of insecurity… After this comes the Depression phase. This may lead to some kind of introspection that is accompanied by a sense of despair, helplessness, and disappointment… Finally, comes the Acceptance phase when they begin to slowly accept reality, adapt themselves to the changed scenario and begin to move on with the stride.

The 5 stages of grief as applicable to our context of the fast-changing world order would perhaps exclude the depression phase because no nation would remain in that phase. Therefore after the denial, anger, and depression phases, the world will grudgingly but eventually step into the acceptance phase. However, reaching the acceptance stage is perhaps going to take several years. Presently, since the 24th February 2022, the collective west has moved through the stages of denial, anger, and bargaining phases… Remember, these 5 stages of grief do not occur in a linear cascaded timeline. They overlap one another with a certain amount of time offset between stages. For instance, as the denial stage peaks, the anger stage begins. Thereafter, the overlapping denial stage continues to subside very gradually as the anger stage begins to peak. Next, after a time offset, the bargaining stage starts and begins to peak but the denial and anger stages may not have completely gone away.

No matter how much we like to brush aside real ongoing events or discard them as transitionary in nature, no matter how much we choose to bury our heads in the sand and wish that everything will go back to normal with business as usual, the fact is that geopolitically and geoeconomically the world is evolving irreversibly. This evolution had subtly started about a decade ago but now with the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, serving as a catalyst, the pace of change has become rather rapid. The global economic order is going through a churning phase, while the US-dominated western hegemony is collapsing for good… This is causing uneasiness among western nations, resulting in the proverbial – 5 Stages of Grief.

Check out the 5 stages of grief of the collective west as the world witnesses a gradual but irreversible collapse of hegemony and unipolarity in slow motion… So far, the world has reached the bargaining phase. The final acceptance stage is a long way down the road…

5 stages of grief - collapsing hegemony

Typical sequence of the 5 Stages of Grief as described by Elisabeth Kubler Ross in her 1969 book – On Death and Dying

Denial Stage – of the 5 stages of grief
The first phase at the start of a long phase of an undesirable yet inevitable and real sequence of transition is the Denial stage whereby, the tendency is to refuse to acknowledge the hard fact that the impending collapse of the existing system is an irrefutable and irreversible event. This leads to confused and mindless behavioral responses. They try to dismiss the event as untrue and a bad dream… Here is what they say or do…

  • The Russian economy is weak and would quickly collapse under the burden of western sanctions.

  • We will freeze Russian assets, prevent them from transacting in USD, and remove them from SWIFT. This will bring their economy to a halt.

  • Russia will be totally isolated in the world as all countries will follow western sanctions. No country will defy our directives.

  • President Putin is a tyrannical, and unpopular dictator. The people of Russia are fed up with him and would like to see him removed. Russian people will be glad to embrace western values and ways of life.

  • Western sanctions will break their economic backbone leading to widespread scarcity and shortages all across Russia.

  • We have imposed a crippling embargo and mandatory sanctions on Russia. All countries must stop trading with them. We will withdraw all western businesses from Russia. We will ensure a total supply chain disruption in Russia. Their people will struggle to meet their daily household needs.

  • We will gradually stop buying Russian oil and gas and replace them with other global sources. This will rapidly bankrupt Russia.

  • Russian people will suffer and protesters will throng the streets. There would be widespread revolt throughout Russia making it impossible for President Putin to govern.

  • Russian Ruble will turn into rubble in a few weeks. It will be game over for Russia.

  • Putin will either be forced to step down or he might be arrested and put behind bars. He might even be killed by his own people.

  • Moreover, according to reliable western intelligence sources, Putin is seriously ill, probably suffering from a life-threatening disease. He won’t last long.

  • Ukraine war will end swiftly with a humiliating Russian defeat. Their military is weak and incompetent. They do not have enough weapons to match the quality or quantity of western weapons provided to Ukraine. Moreover, Russia is running out of weapons. They must be bankrupt by now.

  • Militarily and economically decimated Russia will witness an upsurge of insurgents and separatists. This could possibly lead to the splitting of Russia into several smaller countries.

  • Ukraine is winning the war. Russia is on the back foot. Their brave soldiers are running away from the battlefields. Ukraine has retaken Kiev, Sumy, Kharkiev, and Kherson. However, the truth is that Ukrainians quietly tip-toed into these regions after making sure that the Russians had left. Russia voluntarily vacated these territories to reorient its strategy.

  • Russia has suffered very heavy casualties. The heroic (fictitious) Ukrainian fighter pilot (Ghost of Kiev) shot down more than 40 Russian fighter jets, and so on… The truth is that more than 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers are killed (admitted by Ursula Von Der Leyen) and almost 300,000 of them are critically wounded never to be fit for service again. The hospitals in Ukraine are overflowing and a large number of wounded have been shifted to hospitals in Europe. The Russian casualty rate was initially around 1:3, whereas now it has become as low as 1:8.

  • When asked after a month, why hasn’t Russia crumbled yet? There was more denial from the western leaders… They said, have patience! It takes 3-4 months for sanctions to take effect. OK, but it’s already been more than 10 months and Russia is still going strong… Why?

  • There seems to be no indication that Russia is suffering economically. The reality is that the Russian Ruble has become the world’s strongest currency and their national revenue earnings have also exceeded normal levels. The truth is that all those western economies that imposed sanctions have started facing critical energy and food shortages. The inflation rates in the west have shot through the roof and are headed surely toward recession. It seems the sanctions have boomeranged and are biting the west instead of Russia… Yet, western politicians appear to be in total denial.

  • Contrary to the popular western narrative about the “unprovoked” Russian invasion of Ukraine, the truth is quite different. The former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in an interview with Die Zeit, also confirmed by former French President Francois Hollande, admitted that the Minsk agreements were never intended to be honored. They were created to give enough time to NATO to train and arm Ukraine and establish strong tactical fortified positions for a military confrontation with Russia… The collective west, all along, had military plans to use Ukraine as a proxy against Russia. Perhaps, Russia simply outsmarted NATO with its preemptive move.

  • It is morally right for the west to continue to supply Ukraine with weapons and ammunition of all kinds, however, it is immoral for any country to sell weapons to Russia. How dare Iran sell its kamikaze drones to Russia? It’s so wicked!

Anger Stage – of the 5 stages of grief
After the initial denial stage comes the Anger stage where they would begin to get frustrated and angry with everyone else but themselves. They try to find scapegoats and pin the blame on them for the unfolding traumatic event. This is accompanied by cynicism, frustration, rage, and irritability. They refuse to acknowledge their faults that might have led to the situation… As the global hegemony continues to collapse, here are some of the anger responses…

  • Russia is trying to bypass western sanctions by trading through illegitimate gray markets.

  • China is clandestinely supporting and trading with Russia in violation of our sanctions.

  • India is continuing to buy Russian oil in defiance of stipulated sanctions.

  • India, China, and several other countries have refrained from condemning Russia.

  • The above countries are making a big mistake. They must reaccess their positions or else they will end up being on the wrong side of history.

  • We reserve the right to impose secondary sanctions on all nations that do not abide by the sanctions laid out against Russia.

  • Many countries of the global south including those from Asia, Africa, and South America are making a grave mistake by following the lead of China and India in bypassing various provisions of sanctions.

  • Not only have China and India continued to buy Russian oil, but they have also drastically increased their uptake many folds. Their actions are unwise which may lead to consequences.

  • The above countries have started trading with Russia in their national currencies, thus bypassing the international Dollar based world order. Several other countries are beginning to take that route. This includes Saudi Arabia which has agreed to sell oil to China in Yuan.

  • Russia has decided to sell its oil to western countries only in Russian rubles instead of USD or Euros. This is a violation of contractual obligations and rules-based world order.

  • Russia has pegged its currency to gold and several other countries are preparing to do so. This may lead to turbulence in the present rule-based world order.

  • The expansion of organizations like the BRICS+ and SCO with many countries keen to join them is not a healthy trend. It could lead to a multipolar and multilateral world, which could result in chaos.

  • Russia is supplying free-of-cost fertilizer and discounted grain to countries of Africa. This is unacceptable and amounts to going against market-economy-based free trade practices. This could lead to unfairly influencing sovereign nations.

  • Russia along with India and Iran have developed a new trade corridor called INSTC that expedites trade between Russia and India. It also opens up trade routes to the African continent and Southeast Asia. This route bypasses the Bosporus straight under Turkish control as well as the Suez canal. INSTC cannot be controlled or influenced by the west or NATO.

  • Russia is laying oil and gas pipelines to China and Iran, thus completely removing its need to proactively focus on any possible future energy trade with Europe.

  • Russia has mobilized 300,000 additional troops for an impending assault during winter. Meanwhile, they have started causing heavy losses in Ukraine by systematically destroying their energy infrastructure. Russia is so wicked!

  • Russia is bad. Putin is wicked. They must never win. Their victory will be a disaster for the collective west and will amount to a defeat of NATO. We must never let this happen.

  • Debar Russian athletes from all sporting events. Don’t allow Russia as a nation to be represented in any sports competition. After Russia began to conduct SMO in Ukraine, they have no right or legitimacy for participating in sporting events. Strange logic!

  • Destroy the Nordstream I and 2 pipelines in the Baltic sea through covert operation, even though this would hurt their own ally Germany and cause them insufferable misery. Make sure that Germany doesn’t go soft on the Anglo-American sanctions package. Historically, since the times leading to WWI and WWII, the British have always been uncomfortable with economic cooperation between Russia and Germany. This has always been their Achilles heel and a constant threat to Anglo supremacy in the region. What better moment could there be to destroy Russia-Germany economic prospects once and for all?

  • Out of sheer desperation to force western disinformation and propaganda, the USA and the collective west censored media outlets despite always claiming to be the champions of truth and free speech. USA-controlled social media like Twitter, Facebook, Google, Youtube, etc.; censored, or banned users for presenting the truth, or alternative narratives. Google platforms and Youtube arbitrarily stopped monetizing those who they didn’t like. Payment systems like Paypal blocked users for not agreeing with their propaganda… Free speech seems to have a new definition – YOU’LL ONLY SAY WHAT WE SAY YOU CAN SAY.

  • Try to distort history by adopting an EU parliament resolution stating that the Soviet Union along with Nazi Germany were responsible for starting World War II. This is even though allied forces might never have won WW2 had it not been for the Soviet forces that hammered Germans from the East and eventually capture Berlin in May 1945 to end the war. This was long before the Americans and British managed to roll into Berlin in July.

  • Vigorously resort to anti-Russia cancel culture. Derecognize all Russian heritage like art, music, sculpture, literature, poetry, etc. Destroy Russian monuments, books, or anything else that depicts rich Russian cultural heritage. Don’t listen to Tchaikovsky’s musical compositions. Stop reading Puskin, Tolstoy, etc… Crazy! Isn’t it?

  • Pass a resolution in the EU parliament declaring Russia a terrorist state with the intent of illegally confiscating Russian wealth parked in western countries.

  • Russians are wicked. They first weaponized oil and gas supplies to Europe. Now, they are weaponizing the winter against Ukraine. How dare they!

  • Russia is committing war crimes by striking and destroying Ukrainian civilian infrastructure like their power grid, oils and gas storage, etc… West conveniently forgets how USA/NATO ruthlessly destroyed infrastructure in Serbia, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and many other places. The west was also least concerned about killing millions of civilians including women and children in the process. They justified it as unavoidable collateral damage.

  • An irrational attempt by the G7 and EU to set up a buyer’s cartel of western countries to place a price cap on Russian oil and energy products. We will force Russia to sell oil and gas to us at a price of our choosing… Good luck with that!

  • The irrationality and rage of the west know no bounds. The US soccer federation recently displayed that the west is frustrated and is on the verge of losing its mind. At the FIFA world cup, the Americans acted like juvenile delinquents when they removed the Iranian national emblem from the Iranian flag… What a winner!

  • Anger breeds insanity. Albert Einstien rightly said that “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” Yet the west continues to do exactly that… Mindless of the 8 sanction packages that worked so well towards self-destruction, the EU brings the 9th sanction package against Russia… How stupid can they be?

  • Western anger seems to stem from the fact that their diabolical designs to crush Russia have backfired so badly. On the other hand, Russia feels no need to end the ground conflict in a hurry. It is working to their advantage not only militarily but also paving the way to catalyze the demise of the so-called western rule-based world order, leading to the transition into a new multilateral economic, financial, and political world order.

  • The US advocates a ban on the use of national flags and anthems of Russia and Belarus during international sports competitions and calls for athletes from these countries to be allowed only in a neutral status… Isn’t it sheer juvenile desperation at its best?

Bargaining Stage – of the 5 stages of grief
After a prolonged period of denial followed by anger, when reality begins to dawn, comes the Bargaining phase. This is the phase when one tries to cling to hope. This is a phase where one feels, maybe I can still salvage the situation. Maybe I can do something to arrest the ongoing collapse by winning back others to take my side. This phase is not always benign; it can involve a lot of ruthless scheming. This may often lead to fear, anxiety, and a sense of insecurity… Here are some of the confused and wishful responses…

  • Reach out to African countries directly and through the African Union in desperate attempts to woo them over and counter the Russian goodwill. This included several western diplomats and politicians including US secretary of state Antony Blinken. Unfortunately, they all got a rather lukewarm welcome with nobody willing to tow the western line.

  • President Biden paid a visit to gulf countries in the hope to improve ties. He also met Saudi prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS) to persuade him to increase oil production. It didn’t work out well. Instead, a few days later, OPEC+ announced a further reduction of production by 2 million barrels per day.

  • Outreach to Algeria for increased natural gas supplies to Europe did not yield desired results. Within 2 months Algeria responded by applying to join the BRICS+ group.

  • Tried to persuade Qatar to provide an additional supply of gas to Germany and other European countries. Qatar was not very forthcoming. They half-heartedly agreed to consider a gradual increase in gas production from 2025 onwards. However, by then, worldwide gas marketing might be regulated through an OPEC-style gas cartel that is in the making. Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Qatar, Algeria, Egypt, etc are expected to be part of the new group.

  • Despite a lot of diplomatic efforts by France including President Macron’s visit, the relationship with Mali has gone downhill. The nation wants immediate total withdrawal of all French forces from its soil.

  • USA’s effort to strengthen relations with South Africa hit an uncomfortable roadblock when South African president Ramaphosa said in a press conference on American soil that “if President Joe Biden had agreed to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin unconditionally days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it would have been averted.”… This did not go down well with the Americans.

  • The summit of Americas, an event organized by the USA to bring all Latin American and Caribean nations together to discuss among other matters, a desire to primarily develop a consensus against Russia turned out to be an embarrassment for President Biden. Major countries like Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and Paraguay refused to attend while Nicaragua, Cuba, Venezuela, and El Salvador were not invited. Only about half the countries of the region were present.

  • The USA has renewed its outreach to various Southeast Asian countries. Recently, a top US general (commander of Asia-Pacific command) and later USA VP Kamala Harris visited Indonesia. Meetings were cordial, however, immediately within 6 hours of the general’s visit, the Indonesian president flew to Beijing to meet President Xi Jinping. Similarly, after the visit of Kamala Harris, the foreign minister of Indonesia stated that their relations with Russia are very warm and have strong roots.

  • unlike western groupings like the G7, more inclusive groups like G20 are pushing back the western narrative. Despite 9 of 20 countries belonging to the influential and cohesive western block working hard to hijack the G20 summit in Jakarta by trying to make the Ukraine war the core issue, the summit proceeded smoothly with the regular agenda. Even the G20 summit joint statement did not mention the Ukraine conflict directly nor did it censure Russia. The non-western forums like BRICS+, SCO, St. Petersburg Economic Forum, Vladivostok Eastern Economic Forum, and Valdai Discussion Club (Sochi, Russia) are becoming very popular with the large participation of countries and delegates.

  • The west has been trying for since long to persuade India to reduce Russian oil purchases and also to join the G7 proposed price cap. On 8th November, Indian foreign minister S. Jaishanker while visiting Moscow, during a joint press conference with his counterpart Sergei Lavrov unambiguously stated that India will continue to buy as much Russian oil as it needs. Thereafter, on 12th November, US treasury secretary Janet Yellen while visiting India changed their stance and said that India was free to buy as much Russian oil as they wish. It would not amount to violating sanctions… Thanks, Ms. Yellen! As if India ever sought your approval…

  • During a recent visit to Australia, the foreign minister of India S. Jaishankar was asked if India would reduce Russian arms purchases in favor of superior western arms. He categorically stated that India does not need to seek an alternative to Russian arms, since over many decades these weapons have served India quite well. Moreover, India has found their quality and capabilities to be very satisfactory.

  • Despite attempts by western nations to bargain with the global south, their efforts are falling short primarily due to their compulsive obsession to continue with intimidation tactics. As a consequence, Iran is gradually entering the global south mainstream. JCPOA is almost dead as Iran integrates with the Eurasian block. Qatar, an important gas supplier, has unwisely been rubbed the wrong way by the west during the FIFA world cup resulting in its gravitating further away. West has been reckless in trying to impose its values against Qatar’s cultural values and its sovereign stand on the LGBTQ+ issue.

  • Unable to curtail their high-handed approach to diplomacy, the west is pushing away most nations of the global south towards new economic dispensations like SCO and BRICS+ leading to the ongoing collapse of western hegemony and the so-called rules-based world order. The influence of the city of London, Wallstreet, and Brussels is waning. More than a dozen countries including Argentina, Iran, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Turkiye, Indonesia, Thailand, and Bangladesh are gravitating into the folds of BRICS+ which translates to around 60% of the world population and 48% of the global economy… It’s a sure-shot recipe for de-dollarization. Alternatives to SWIFT, IMF, and World Bank have already been created with SPFS and NDB (BRICS bank) being made operational.

  • So far, the narrative of the collective west that includes the USA and NATO had been very cohesive and belligerent, however, signs of fracture have begun to appear slowly but surely. Those who swore on the definite and absolute defeat of Russia have now gradually softened their stand. Some have started to acknowledge that Ukraine despite unlimited military and economic support from the west may not be able to win. Many who advocated direct NATO involvement by sending troops, and those hotheads who suggested considering prospects of indulging in a limited tactical nuclear strike against Russia have started backing off. Flexing muscles by conducting nuclear exercises near the Russian border or overhyping NATO capabilities by deploying 101 Airborne Division and other forces in Poland and Romania have fallen silent. Now, they seem to be waking up to the grim reality.

  • After sticking to his consistent stand for many months on being committed to destroying Russia, even President Biden is beginning to see a clearer picture. He realizes that victory over Russia may not be possible. Perhaps, he has also begun to realize that instead of Russia which is doing fairly well both economically and militarily, the burden of consequences is falling on the west with UK and EU going down the economic rabbit hole. The USA is also at the edge of the cliff… Therefore president Biden now says that he is willing to talk to Russia provided Russia is looking to find a solution to end the war… The tone of his statement is still quite patronizing… Perhaps, Russia is in no hurry, until that tone gets mellowed down with time.

  • Recently, French President Macron said the security architecture of Europe must include security guarantees for Moscow. Is the west waking up to reality? Would these noises being made by them mean anything to Russia, because various treaties and guarantees given by the western block in the past were blatantly dishonored which includes both Minsk 1 and Minsk 2 agreements?

  • Perhaps too late! Nevertheless, the EU is realizing the folly of its lopsided policies. EU Foreign Policy Chief Joseph Borrell admits, “Ukraine conflict has been a wake-up call for EU regarding our military capabilities, we gave weapons to Kiev but realized our military stocks were DEPLETED”.

  • After vehemently opposing Russian participation in every international forum over the last 10 months, is the USA mellowing down? Matt Murray, a senior U.S. official for APEC says – As “good stewards of APEC”, the United States will allow Russia to participate, which is a member of the 21-country bloc.

  • Discontent among citizens of the UK and EU is on the rise with more and more protests and strikes seen across many major cities. This includes London, Brussels, Munich, Leipzig, Paris, Prague, Madrid, Lisbon, and several others where tens of thousands of people hit the streets repeatedly to demand better living standards. They demand stopping aid to Ukraine and focus on the dire domestic economic conditions. Some of these protests even call for pulling out of NATO.

  • Meanwhile, the entire collective west reels under heavy inflationary pressure, while the UK and Europe enter a long phase of hard recession. People suffer, industries close down, and economies tumble, while the USA makes windfall profits despite their misery.

  • Incessant and irrational cheerleading for Ukraine by the western MSM and politicians is on the decline. Although still in denial, several sections of western media and politicians have begun to see the writing on the wall. Many of them may not have yet acknowledged it officially in public but they realize the hopelessness of the situation in Ukraine. They realize that Russia is winning and is unstoppable.

  • The collective west is realizing that neither can Russia be defeated nor can they force a negotiated settlement on terms that could be favorable to the west and Ukraine. The only way the war might end will be when Russia decides to do so on its terms.

  • West (USA) is confused and confounded. After imposing a price cap on Russian oil, subsequently, Russia retaliated by banning oil sales to them through a presidential decree, now the US treasury says – “Once Russian petroleum products or Russian oil are substantially transformed through a refining process, in a jurisdiction other than the Russian Federation, they are no longer considered to be of Russian Federation origin, and thus the price cap no longer applies.”… Huh! Is this a face-saver?

  • For almost a year since the beginning of the conflict, all western politicians had maintained that NATO and the collective west will support Ukraine with financial and military assistance for as long as it takes. However, now there seems to be a subtle shift in their stand. During Ukraine president Zelensky’s visit to the White House on 21st Dec 2022, President Biden said “We will support Ukraine for as long as it is there“. Many observers dismissed it as a typical Biden gaffe. Was it? Perhaps not!… At the Ramstein airbase NATO meeting on 20th Jan 2023, Llyod Austin the US Secretary of Defence stated that the US will support Ukraine for as long as it is possible… It is important to note the change in the wording. This is surely no coincidence!

As we see above, the western global hegemony is on the verge of collapse. The collective west is going through the 5 stages of grief as this happens. Currently, we witness the first 3 stages of grief in action. These are overlapping phases. The denial stage is yet not over but it has considerably mellowed down. The second phase, the anger phase is still quite prominent. This will perhaps last for a substantial period of time. In parallel to the first 2 stages, the bargaining phase has begun to peak. It is expected to go on for a long time, perhaps for another 2-3 years before acceptance stage starts setting in. Of course, as I mentioned earlier, the fourth stage, the depression stage may be skipped over. It may never occur. In a global geopolitical scenario, there might be no room for any nation to languish in depression. It would be catastrophic for their economies. Therefore, the final stage, the acceptance stage will eventually occur… That will perhaps usher in a new era of global economic prosperity and growth based on a newly formed “Law based world order” rather than the present unipolar rules-based order. Multipolarity and multilateralism will generally prevail. The sovereignty of each nation will then be respected and national growths will be proportionate to their economic strengths, capabilities, and quantum of domestically available resource attributes.

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